Nuclear War A Scenario, Annie Jacobsen

[BlowingOldBoots]

This was a Sunday Times best seller, non-fiction thriller, shortlisted for the Baillie Gifford Prize 2024.

I bought the audio book version. Jacobsen describes a scenario where nuclear war starts and escalates to the final conclusion. Each chapter is based on time since launch (by an enemy of the USA) and what happens to the missile, defence systems and political decisions, with some historical context included. The narrative descriptions are all based on current knowledge, including declassified information. It describes a lot of stuff in detail, backed by expert validation.

I found the listen fascinating at just how easy it would be to escalate and the incredibly short time frames that politicians have to work in, minutes in some cases. One factoid describes how a submarine's entire payload of ICBMs can be launched faster than a hunter killers submarines ability to program a firing solution and fire a torpedo. The whole nuclear deterrent is set up, by design to happen in incredibly short times. The USA and Russia both have launch on warning strategies*, and hair trigger policy for their ICBMs. This all works because of MAD and some rationality of leaders in nuclear countries, but it doesn't work if a "Mad King" launches a missile.

The story telling cadence is dead pan, devoid of emotion, but it fits well with the factual narrative from the initial launch of a single ICBM (where the satellites detect and calculate in fractions of a second to decide if the plume intensity, size and brightness is a long or short range burn), through to the launch on warming decision (political) and the biggest weakness in the whole system - you have to read / listen to find out. The trajectory calculations by the satellites are very accurate, until the missile's engines run out of fuel which makes it invisible for about 20 minutes, until land based radar can detect the missile, or multiple warheads and try and launch an anti missile. The USA has about 40 anti missile projectiles in total with a success rate based on testing of less than 25%. The tests are what stopped the USA building more because the probability of success was too low.

There are a couple of chapters in the book that I didn't like and thought detracted from the fact based narrative, but on a whole a thoroughly illuminating listen. In my opinion the style of narrative in the audio book would be better than reading.

It is not a difficult narrative to follow and it doesn't play on the horror of nuclear war, except indirectly at the numbers of humans and eco systems impacted. If we ever needed a reminder at the fragility of MAD or the nuclear deterrent as an enabler of armageddon, this describes it well.

* Apparently the USA no longer has a LoW strategy, but now relies on verification of a nuclear detonation. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/1997-11 ... s-doctrine

[Burst Boiler]

Does the UK need Trump's approval to fire our "independent" deterrent? Our subs and wareheads. Their missiles.

[Gardenshed]

Does the UK need Trump's approval to fire our "independent" deterrent? Our subs and wareheads. Their missiles.

Always a difficult question to answer, from Polaris onwards. If he didn't agree with them being used, for sure, there'd be no replacements and no support if we asked for it.

If nothing else, the chaos of Trump is exposing just how fragile the relationships and agreements are, that following the 2nd world war we've all taken for granted
Putin must be delighted with Trump's destruction of the US -European alliance. Following his comments about the defence treaty of Japan, equal chaos in Asia.


......now, where are the Bluestreak blueprints?