Wet and windy - forecast @ 241730 Jan08

[bilbo]

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Issued: 1600 Thursday 24th January 2008

FRIDAY:

High pressure is going to be centred over central/north France, with low pressure passing north of Scotland. Squeezed between these two are the British Isles and hence a strong west to southwesterly flow will be affecting all areas of the country. Severe gales over northern Scotland with gusts in excess of 80mph this morning. A warm front passes east on Friday morning, with the cold front slipping into northern Scotland on Friday afternoon

A cloudy start to the day for most of the country. There will be some spots of drizzle on western coasts of Wales, southwest England and perhaps southern Ireland. Fog patches may affect the Irish Sea and English Channel. More inland areas will find the cloud breaking and a few brighter spells coming through, especially in the Midlands. Windy everywhere.

A very windy day in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. Here the cloud is going to be thicker in the west, with further spells of rain or drizzle, and heavier rain over the north of Scotland. Winds easing in the afternoon. More eastern parts of Scotland should be drier,. And the cloud break here.

Winds will be SW 20-25kt (F5-F6) through southern England, Wales and southern Ireland, SW 25-30 gust 40kt (F6 gust F8) over northern England, and SW 40 gust 60kt (F8-F9 gust F11) across exposed parts of Scotland (subtract one force for speeds in more sheltered areas), although easing in the afternoon.

SATURDAY:

The cold front moves southwards through Friday night into Saturday morning. Pressure remains high across France and into the English Channel, and pressure Values are high over the UK. Therefore I think there is a tendency for the front to weaken, although it could still give some moderate rain in the morning.

So I still think a fair amount of cloud for much of England, Wales and Ireland on Saturday morning, the thickest close to the front, Here there will be some outbreaks of rain, and these could be heavy over northwest England, the north of Wales and parts of Northern Ireland. Fog on hills. Through the day this tends to weaken, although I think it will be evening and overnight before the rain starts to fade away completely.

To the south of the front the cloud is likely to break inland, with some sunny spells coming through. Morning low cloud and drizzle could be replaced on the coasts by sunshine too. However, fog patches may be a problem in the Channel and around southwest coasts, as well as the Irish Sea.

North of the front Scotland is likely to be brighter and colder. Scattered showers to the west, but drier in the east.

Winds mainly WSW 15-20 (F5) across much of England and Wales, nearer W-WNW 20-30kt (F6_F7 gusting F8) over northern Scotland.

SUNDAY:

This is really a case of ‘as you were’. A warm front will be passing northeast through Ireland and Scotland overnight, reintroducing moister air. Note though that pressure is still high in the south, and this should mean that overall the day should be okay for more southern parts.

There may be some low cloud and drizzle on the coasts of west Wales, southwest England and southern Ireland, together with some fog patches in the Irish Sea and Channel. Inland cloud will be breaking and there should be some sunny spells coming through.

Thicker cloud for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Here there will be some outbreaks of rain in the west. A few spots of drizzle can’t be ruled out over northwest England too. Hill fog in the north and west, associated with the drizzle.

Winds will be mainly WSW-SW 10-15kt (F3-F4) over southern England, Wales and southern Ireland. WSW-SW 15-20kt (F5) in northern Ireland and northern England, perhaps WSW-SW 30-35kt (F7-F8) over northern Scotland.


*NB - I've tried inserting images of the several interesting forecast charts provided by Simon Keeling, but it proved too bloody difficult. So I encourage those with roofs to retain, and dinks to tie down, to register direct with 'SK' at <simon@weatherweb.net> for your own series of weekend sailing forecasts like this one. Oh, and it's free......*

Bilbo B

[sahona]

Spent the day aboard, can it get any worse? According to Scottish Volmet, Prestwick was getting the highest windspeed across the country.
For Nick:- relax (a wee bit) things are beginning to work. I'm sure it'll be in fine trum by the 25th (of something)....