Was it really that bad?

[marisca]

I get the impression from some of the posts that this hasnae been a good summer and yet I seem to have a bit of suntan on my face, arms and legs, am on my 2nd bottle of SPF15, have worn shorts more this year than the last two or so combined and feel generally satisfied with what Aeolus and Poseidon have thrown at me.

Now I admit there was a wee bit of a blow during SIPR in May but we did win our class, I got out of Stornoway just before the northerlies turned south in July, WHYW had only one windless day in August and I've spent the last two weeks sweltering on a family holiday in France, coming back for a slightly blustery weekend and 2nd place in the KGV. I've only used the storm jib once and have not had to use the 3rd reef yet and have still covered more than 2000nm with a lot more of it than I would have liked under motor.

So, have I been lucky, am easily pleased, have low expectations or are the critical yins just moaning minnies?

[claymore]

I guess its just the luck of the draw - you are obviously one of the lucky ones this time.

[Silkie]

It's been the worst yet (so far ) for me. After a great start, I've hardly sailed in July and August.

Admittedly, apart from holidays, I can only sail every second weekend and I missed a couple of those for other reasons but the last two have featured regular "F5-7 perhaps gale 8 later" forecasts. Doubtless also there will be winds which are as nought to you while I quake, stormbound...

Oh, all right, I'm just a moaning minnie.

[Booby Trapper]

Pretty good up till 2nd week in July then it just got worse and worse. I read somewhere that we are going to break records again for the wettest August since blah, blah, blah

[Nick]

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Eskdalemuir reports the wettest August since records began - and the 3rd wettest month EVER (including all the Winter months on record!)

The main feature though has been the frequency of winds of F6 or above, which I would venture to suggest is increasing year on year.

[aquaplane]

We have just had our worst W/e for weather all year. Saturday wasn't too bad, a few showers, clear for the BBQ tea then wet O/N.

Sunday was dank wet and rainy all day with a good bit of wind, today was showery all day and wind when it felt like it, 6.3Kts to 1.5 Kts. To cap it off, we got wet through in the heaviest downpour as we were packing up.

We have only has one W/E that was half as bad, the rest has been OK, at least if we slept in to wait for the rain to pass, but they have been few and far between.

[puddock]

Caroline and I have been fairly lucky weather wise (wind strengths - not sunshine) but it has still been pretty grim. I have followed forecasts while I have been away and I generally didn't often get the feeling that I was missing anything.
I would say it has been pretty bloody awful in general.

[Nick]

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At the risk of starting a MMGW thread . . .

If you accept that overall global temperature is increasing (for whatever reason) then an increase in windspeed and overall storminess is ineveitable, as atmospheric activity is largely thermal in origin. This Summer I can only remember ONE day when the inshore waters UK graphic on the Met Office site didn't have any red (Strong Wind Warning) somewhere round the coast. During August it has been rare for there to be any gap in the red.

We have, like the Admiral of the Red and many others on here, become accustomed to regular passagemaking in F6 if we want to get anywhere. Anyone who wants to get any cruising done in years to come had better learn to like strong winds and modify their boats accordingly if necessary.

[claymore]

Its a bit like hot weather really - if its hot there is only so much you can take off, whereas if its cold there is no limit to the amount you can put on to keep warm.
If the wind isn't blowing then there is not a lot you can do other than motor whereas if its very windy at least you can reef down.
Perhaps we shall see a surge in the number of storm jibs and trysails being sold
- Would anyone like to buy a nice GREY spinnaker?

[stevepick]

Alistair ( Marisca )

I will join you - I have a proper scottish sailing tan - head and fore-arms! I think this has been my best year yet ( in 3 seasons of boat ownership).I don't have my log to hand, but I think I have missed 3 weekends sailing this season ( boat in the water for the first W/E of april). I sailed the first 2 (unbelievably sunny) weeks of June and the first week of august ( WHYW ). The June trip was north of ardnamuchan, we got to St kilda , barra, west skye and knoydart. we had one day when it topped out at F7. I am fairly sure I haven't used the 2nd mainsail reef this year.
Saw dolphins - a pod of a dozen or so ( 1st time ever in scotland) in sound of sleat, porpoise almost every time we have been out, seals also almost every time we have been out. Haven't seen a basking shark this year, saw two Minke whales south of Rum on june.
Finally I have sailed in the rain/conditions where I had to wear full oillies 3 maybe 4 times this year!
August is always pish, it always has been (IIRC its the wettest month of the scottish summer and always has been, well before any climate change hove into view) - thats why 2 out of the 3 weekends I haven't planned to be on the boat this year have been in august
If there is one thing I have learnt in the past couple of years is listen to the forecast , then stick your nose out, I have had cracking days out in supposed F6/7 days when shelter or a simply wrong forecast have provided superb, clear, brisk sailing in F4.
Looking forward to wearing my sun hat in september and october!

Steve

[marisca]

Ah yes - the forecasts! My feeling is that never have there been so many totally wrong forecasts on the VHF. SE 3 or 4 was a repeated promise earlier in the year that always seemed to give north and/or west but at the same time promised occasional rain and/or showers (incidentally what is the difference between these?) seemed to involve blue sky and sun even in the disappeared waters between Muck and Ardnamurchan.

From the amount of water collected in my deck bucket while I was away during August, it is likely that had I been here I might have had a different view.

Claymore - what size is your spinnaker. Mine now consists of more tape than cloth (well, not quite) after blowing out (yet again) during WHYW. I'm not fussed about the colour.

[claymore]

Ahh - I couldn't part with the Spinnaker - having blown Aja away between Ardnamurchan and Canna, it just wouldn't seem right.

[ash]

I don't have any detailed records or recollection but it certainly 'feels' to have been a poor summer.

The water level in the Loch has been higher than 'normal' all summer.

During the last few weeks the level has risen by about a metre and is currently at a winter level - another metre and Ardlui will be flooded. It is difficult to say if this all because of high rainfall or because of the management regime at the barrage.

The Leven always looks high when I cross on the A82, but this could be due to the silting which I believe effects the users at Sandpoint. I don't understand why the barrage control isn't used more aggressively - increase water flow when the tide is low in the Clyde and throttle it back during high water - surely this would help to scour the Leven and eventually help to reduce incidents of flooding both by the Leven and the Loch.

Ash

[JackJ]

Nick, your thinking is correct that if temperatures increase then rainfall will increase too.
However, temperatures have decreased since 1999.
I recommend highly the attached Executive Intelligence Review article.
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2009/s ... r_min.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think you'll find that it always rains a lot in your part of the world, and you are known to be windy.
There may have been a touch more rain and wind this year because a jet stream is having one of its natural ossicalations.
Hope this helps.
Good sailing, September's gonna be fab.

[Nick]

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Nick, your thinking is correct that if temperatures increase then rainfall will increase too.

What I think I actually said was that increasing temperatures=increasing mean wind speeds.

You are correct that the current run of foul weather is due to the jetstream being displaced too far to the South, and the LaRouche report certainly makes interesting reading. However, there is no reason to suppose that sunspot activity wil remain at its current low level, nor is there any current theory as to how sunspot activity could affect the position of the jetstream.

Ironically, the only way to really find out if phenomena like sunspots and solar wind are playing a larger role in climate change than most scientists now believe would be to significantly reduce our carbon emissions. Only in the absence of that potential driver will researchers be able to tell for sure how much impact natural influences have on the Earth’s climate.

In the meantime, it's persisting down outside again here . . . hope the weather is better in Cowes.