Brrrrrrrr

[sahona]

After the winter clock-change at the weekend, we watched Arran get the first dusting of snow this morning.





Hasn't lasted long, but it's a warning.
Time to get the old hibernation blankets out...........Cheerio

See you next Spring.

[ljs]

Well this was my drive at ten o clock this morning:

[img][img]http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f168/ ... n08040.jpg[/img][/img]

[philiph]

must be part of global warming cos I cannot recall snow in October. Clearly it is not a challenge to global warming as that phenomenon is predicted to divert/stop the Gulf Stream and therefore lead to much colder winters in these parts. Only I didn't think it was due for a few more years.

[ash]

I was going to title my post "Brrrrr"

The weekend just past should have been our last sail of the season but the weather put paid to that.

Went up to the boat today so that I could bring back the cushions in the car without a passenger.

Driving up the side of the loch, I could see the white horses charging down the loch, but at Ardlui it was quieter and sunny.

Decided to take Mistral out for a couple hours by myself. Of course, by the time I was ready to leave the berth, the wind had picked up. By the time I had got back to the cockpit after dropping the temporary bow line, she was already being blown back out of her berth.

Don't have the tillerpilot available at the moment, so hoisting the sails was a bit of a faff. Did it back to front as sailing under jib brings her head closer to the wind than lying ahull.

Before I got underway, I was fiddling with the traveller, when the boom gybed and the mainsheet pinned me against the coaming. Luckily I don't have any blocks in the middle of the fall, and the sheets missed my face/glasses.

It was pretty gusty, and blooming cold.

I wish that I had noticed the snow before I dropped the sails.



Ash

[Telo]

Friggin' wimps!

Wasn't too bad today. Here's the crew coming out of the companionway hatch earlier;

[ash]

They boots must make an awfa mess o the teak decks, an the safety lines seem a bit long.

Ash

[JackJ]

must be part of global warming cos I cannot recall snow in October. Clearly it is not a challenge to global warming as that phenomenon is predicted to divert/stop the Gulf Stream and therefore lead to much colder winters in these parts. Only I didn't think it was due for a few more years.

Very interesting. The GW theory is that higher temperatures will melt the arctic ice. The meltwater will stop the Gulf Stream which will result in much lower temperatures for us. The flaw in this is that if temperatures get lower then the Arctic ice will stop melting and refreeze will occur thus allowing the Gulf Stream to flow. A simple matter of balance (which Gaia is very good at). Don't swallow the alarmist GW guff.
Now; will Nick delete this post?
It is not racist or provocative and is in keeping with this thread.

[Telo]

Snow in October just depends where you are and at what height.

On the last weekend of September some years ago (ummm, errmm, 25 ackshully), a climbing partner and myself had to retreat from Agag's Groove on Rannoch Wall, Buachaille Etive Mòr; the "runnel" on the second(?) pitch was blocked up with water ice. In the distance, the top thousand feet of Ben Nevis were under fresh snow.

Later that day, we climbed Crowberry Ridge Direct, and had to do a very delicate and unusual off-route VS finish because the whole caboodle was covered in verglas (and we didn't have crampons or ice axes with us).

Early snow has only become unusual in recent years imho. Back in January, the Met Office predicted a cooler year than recently because of the La Niña effect in the Pacific.

I don't know too much about the effects of GW on the North Atlantic Conveyor, but sure, there is an opinion that GW melting the polar ice and stopping the Conveyor effect could have very serious consequences for northern Atlantic Europe.

On a global basis I am not aware that scientific opinion believes that it will mitigate against future GW. Why should it? Much more likely that the loss of the Conveyor effect will make things worse for us hardy northern types, and will increase the overall volatility of the weather, with some rather disturbing long term effects on many aspects of human activity, including agriculture.

[Nick]

. . .
Used to be very common in Aberdeenshire - I drove back today over the Lecht with several inches of slush on the road and the piste bashers out on some of the runs.

OTOH, it is the first time in 50 years that snow has settled in Southern England.

It's just weather tho' not climate change.

Re. the stopping gulf stream scenario - if it stops it stops, UK will be much colder than now, Greenland will be warmer. That's why climate change is a more useful descriptive term than global warming - an average global temperature rise will have very varying results in different areas.

Anyway, the stopping of the GS due to lower salinity levels is highly speculative and may not happen. The genie is out of the bottle and we can't predict exactly what is going to happen.

[Telo]

The genie is out of the bottle and we can't predict exactly what is going to happen.

Agreed, and it's unlikely to be good news....

Come to think of it, there was snow on Beinn a' Bheithir, when we sailed on the evening of 3rd October;

[Alcyone]

must be part of global warming cos I cannot recall snow in October. Clearly it is not a challenge to global warming as that phenomenon is predicted to divert/stop the Gulf Stream and therefore lead to much colder winters in these parts. Only I didn't think it was due for a few more years.

Very interesting. The GW theory is that higher temperatures will melt the arctic ice. The meltwater will stop the Gulf Stream which will result in much lower temperatures for us. The flaw in this is that if temperatures get lower then the Arctic ice will stop melting and refreeze will occur thus allowing the Gulf Stream to flow. A simple matter of balance (which Gaia is very good at). Don't swallow the alarmist GW guff.
Now; will Nick delete this post?
It is not racist or provocative and is in keeping with this thread.

That's a very comforting thought, offset only by the fact that it has, of course, stopped before. It did restart, as you quite rightly say, but not fast enough for these boys to get a bit of sailing in.

Now, land yachts, yes.

[Alcyone]

. . .
Used to be very common in Aberdeenshire - I drove back today over the Lecht with several inches of slush on the road and the piste bashers out on some of the runs.

OTOH, it is the first time in 50 years that snow has settled in Southern England.

It's just weather tho' not climate change.

Re. the stopping gulf stream scenario - if it stops it stops, UK will be much colder than now, Greenland will be warmer. That's why climate change is a more useful descriptive term than global warming - an average global temperature rise will have very varying results in different areas.

Anyway, the stopping of the GS due to lower salinity levels is highly speculative and may not happen. The genie is out of the bottle and we can't predict exactly what is going to happen.

I think there are some very good points in here. Firstly, individul events have little significance when talking about climate change. Secondly, the vast, vast majority of scientsits out there do not predict, they give theories, sometimes with (weighted) probabilities.

I studied Climate change as part of a degree in the 80s, when it was very, very much a theory. It is alarming to see that many of the 'wild' claims made neary 30 years ago do seem to have come to pass.

The thing that annoys me most about the subject, though, is the people that seek to cherry pick the scientific therories they want as they fit in with their lifestyle.

"I'm more than happy to accept geology, as it is used to find the oil that powers my car, but I don't agree with geomorphology, as it shows what could happen if I use that car too much."