Hope you don’t mind me disturbing you this afternoon as I muse on conditions over the weeks ahead.
I’ve been looking at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 6.2008.gif
There’s quite an area of warm water now off the east of Newfoundland. Notice too that water is below normal around the southern half of Ireland and the UK, this extending into the west of Europe, off Portugal and through the Bay of Biscay.
Now, this anomaly has intensified over the past few days and I am wondering if this is going to be the controlling factor of out weather for the remainder of October? My thought process is that the warmer water off Newfoundland into the mid-Atlantic is going to aide the development of low pressure here, whilst the colder waters off the southwest of the UK enhances high pressure here. With quite a temperature gradient in these areas the polar front could well situate itself in this zone and I’m wondering if this means that some parts of the UK will experience enhanced rainfall whilst others are drier?
So for now let’s think of it as a north-south divide. I suspect that much of Ireland and Scotland could see cloud and some heavy periods of rain and some strong winds at times too. To the south is higher pressure and so drier conditions here. Quite a contrast in rainfall over the country.
Next question is, how long does it last? Well, I think it might be a tropical storm or hurricane that will come along and destroy the pattern. The tropics are still active and so this may well be the case. Of course, we won’t know until we know!
All the best,
Simon
