BLUEMOMENT

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My new crew has to book time off work well in advance, so I intend taking the good ship Fairwinds to sea on Friday 29th April with a view to meeting up with as many of you as possible.

Will it happen? The last two years have been so inhospitable that I cannot help but feel the odds must be with us this year.

Absolutely - I think it would be rude not to.
The beginning of May will be a challenge for me as we are Skiing at Easter then going on to Danelandia for a week or two. Claymore is staying in the water for the winter so its just a matter of getting my airse into gear once home

As per normal, we will be trying to get there.

It's going to be a complicated spring, two boats to sell and associated logistics.

I'm starting phased retirement in June if all goes to plan so I'll have more time June to October

aquaplane wrote: I'm starting phased retirement in June if all goes to plan so I'll have more time June to October

That's not been my experience of retirement

Date noted. All that is required is half decent weather...

I'm not sure I buy the line that because the last two years were shyte there's an improved chance of this year being good. That's getting suspiciously close to "the law of averages" and similar unscientific nonsense. You toss a coin five times and get five heads. What's the probability of the sixth toss resulting in a head? In my world the probability is 50% - unless of course the coin is two-headed, in which case the probability is 100%, or perhaps very slightly less to allow for the chances of it rolling down a crack and getting lost.

cpedw wrote:

aquaplane wrote: I'm starting phased retirement in June if all goes to plan so I'll have more time June to October

That's not been my experience of retirement

I plan to smile and wave. If anyone suggests an appointment not involving sailing, I won't be available for 4 months. It worked for my mum and dad.

DaveS wrote:I'm not sure I buy the line that because the last two years were shyte there's an improved chance of this year being good. That's getting suspiciously close to "the law of averages" and similar unscientific nonsense. You toss a coin five times and get five heads. What's the probability of the sixth toss resulting in a head?

Weather is not random though.

I'm up for it.

If the oil price continues its downward trend I might have plenty of time for sailing soon

Silkie wrote: Weather is not random though.

Well, that raises an interesting philosophical point. It's certainly not random in the short term, since quite a good predictor of tomorrow's weather is "what's it doing today?" But over a longer period? Can it be shown that for a particular day of the year the weather is either consistent or follows some sort of repetitive cycle? I do have a memory that throughout the 1970s Bannockburn weekend was almost always good weather (with the odd hot weather thunder plout), but without access to historical records (these must be available, but where?) it might just be selective memory.

Actually, when I think of it, I used to have 20 years worth (1961 to 1980 IIRC) of daily temperature data for Glasgow and Edinburgh Airports. I'll maybe see if I've still got it and, if so, try a wee analysis.

Global warming is probably making a nonsense of this currently and even more so in the coming years but I quite like Metcheck's UK singularities.

Silkie wrote:Global warming is probably making a nonsense of this currently and even more so in the coming years but I quite like Metcheck's UK singularities.

Interesting site. It shows Bannockburn weekend as 77% confidence wet and windy. Either my memory is worse than I thought or, yes, it's global warming messing up previously familiar patterns.

I have made a note of the date. I hope the green behemoth will be ready by then.