Exceptionally stormy Monday...really?
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 11:36 am
Hi everyone,
Just a few observations regarding Mondays storm.
I'm encouraged that the feature was picked up by the models 7+ days ago. Yes, they have varied as to where the centre of the low would be, but the idea that a major storm system would affect the UK has remained consisitent. This is good news for everyone who relies on weather forecast to plan the days ahead!
The problem of course is then picking out the fine detail of the system.
My current thoughts are that the weather for Monday may actually be nothing exceptional. This feature is likely to be the first of our winter storms; winds to 70mph, heavy rain for some, snow on the hills and feeling damn cold everywhere. But that is likely to be the limit of it.
There will be some too-ing and fro-ing amongst the models over the next 48-hours but overall I think we can now say that the track will take it through southern Ireland, southwest Wales and across southwest England through the day.
It is interesting to see how the jet stream gets disrupted by the feature too. The jet stream gets forced south through Iberia and the western Mediterranean bringing a real blast of winter there too (see below).
Just a few thoughts, hope they are of use!
Simon
Just a few observations regarding Mondays storm.
I'm encouraged that the feature was picked up by the models 7+ days ago. Yes, they have varied as to where the centre of the low would be, but the idea that a major storm system would affect the UK has remained consisitent. This is good news for everyone who relies on weather forecast to plan the days ahead!
The problem of course is then picking out the fine detail of the system.
My current thoughts are that the weather for Monday may actually be nothing exceptional. This feature is likely to be the first of our winter storms; winds to 70mph, heavy rain for some, snow on the hills and feeling damn cold everywhere. But that is likely to be the limit of it.
There will be some too-ing and fro-ing amongst the models over the next 48-hours but overall I think we can now say that the track will take it through southern Ireland, southwest Wales and across southwest England through the day.
It is interesting to see how the jet stream gets disrupted by the feature too. The jet stream gets forced south through Iberia and the western Mediterranean bringing a real blast of winter there too (see below).
Just a few thoughts, hope they are of use!
Simon