Weekend Weather Forecast 19/5/11

Forecasts and WeatherWebTV news from our resident weather guru Simon Keeling

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Weekend Weather Forecast 19/5/11

Postby weatherman » Thu May 19, 2011 4:44 pm


Thanks to all of you who have registered with my new SWIS service. If you haven't, now is your chance to get a free 14-day trial.
I want the service to be much more than just another weather forecast site, I want it to be something you can actually use, and that's why as well as forecasts, you get access to my videos and musings (a new weekend forecast video exclusive to SWIS members has just been updated, if you are not a member register now for free and you will be able to view).

To register go to http://www.sailingweather.co.uk and don't forget you can receive forecasts by email and your mobile telephone as well as on the internet.

Onto Weather School matters and I have announce the data for the autumn Schools. Sailing Weather (Part 1) will be held on Sunday 16th October 2011, and Sailing Weather (Part 2) will be held on Saturday 5th November 2011. For more information and full details of the course, see http://www.weatherschool.co.uk.

Now on with the weekend forecast, and any friends or colleagues who want to receive this forecast can do so by emailing sailingweather-subscribe@weatherweb.net

Have a great weekend,

Best wishes,

Issued: 4pm Thursday 19th May 2011

An area of low pressure is going to be to the west of Scotland at midday on Saturday. This will be tracking slowly northeastwards, bringing strentghening winds to many northern and western parts of the country. The warm front which is passing to the north of Scotland has much moisture associated with it and will be bringing lots of cloud, rain and drizzle to many northern and western areas.
The rain and drizzle concentrated through western Scotland and Ireland through the day, with heavier rain moving into Ireland, associated with the cold front. More central and eastern parts of the country should start the day dry with good spells of sunshine, although cloud will be increasing from tuhe west throughout the day.Visibility will be moderate or poor in more northern and western areas.
Winds will be mainly S-SW 5-8kt (F2) in the far southeast, but 20-25kt (F6) through the irish Sea and western Scotland, increasing to 28-32kt (F7) on western coasts later. A general increase in the wind for all but the southeast in the afternoon.


The area of low pressure is expected to be northeast of Shetland by midday on Sunday. An occluded front which is wrapped around the low will sweep a band of heavy rain eastwards through Scotland on Sunday morning, taking with it the strongest of the winds, which will by then have reach severe gale force.
The rain to the south should be lighter in the morning, most of it having cleared eastern coasts by breakfast time. Then an unstable, brisk westerly flow will follow, and it will be feeling cooler too. Most places are going to be dry with some sunny spells,a although a few showers will be affecting western coasts and hills.
The risk of showers tends to increase in the afternoon, and you can see that marked by the trough on the chart. Western areas could have a few heavy showers through the afternoon. To the south the ridge of high pressure is likely to be keeping things drier.
Winds will be W 30-40kt (F6-F8) across Scotland at first, then W 20-25kt (F6) for much of the country, but decreasing 15-20kt (F4-F5) in the south later.


Simon Keeling, PhD MSc, FRMetS
My new book The Pocket Weather Forecaster is out now. Read sample pages here.

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