To go round the Mull with this forecast?

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wully
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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby wully » Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:38 pm

aquaplane wrote:
A conservatory would be nice, or a deck saloon. Ivor just swapped his Centaur for an LM 27 after a cold slog round Ardlamont.

.


All the best folk have deck saloon boaties, well, except for Claymore obviously. Who's fine shup I forgot to go and have a rake round today.
It was far too nice a day here to be inside.

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby mm5aho » Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:10 pm

I'd go round with that forecast, even singlehanded. I've rounded in F6 westerly (and that's a much longer fetch!)
I'd be wary of Gigha though in any strong winds. I got knocked down (well sort of) on a mooring there in a westerly of about F8. Heeled over to put the cabin windows in the water - no sails up remember, on a mooring!

But it could be a bit of a struggle getting round from Cambeltown if that SE goes a bit more easterly, but past the Arranman or so (well Sanda maybe) and it could be a good run. As others said, head further north.
All that assuming you get the tides right.
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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby Clyde_Wanderer » Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:21 pm

lady_stormrider wrote:I've just been told I'm doing the navigating for this trip.

Out of Kip, down to Campbeltown, Mull of Kintyre, past Gigha and to Tayvallich.

It should be a cinch for my first attempt. Something nice and easy......


:sailing:


LS Why not cut out Campbeltown altogether and set a course for Sanda.
A much more pleasent place to be in a SSE or SE, ( infact a much more pleasent place than CT in any conditions) and aim to leave there at HW Dover.
I would assume you are planning on the outer passage around the MOK given a SE wind.
Good Luck.
C_W

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby ash » Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:36 pm

Mmmmm

So, did you set off on your theoretical sail?

I take it that you spent the last 2 days getting from Kip to Cambeltown, and now need to decide whether to keep going or have a distillery tour?

Just looking at your forecast in isolation, the decision seems ( to me ) slightly doubtful - what was the time of issue of forecast relative to your departure time?

Not sure if I could persuade my crew to set off because of the mention of 7 and 8.

Looking at the broader picture, what was the weather in preceding days - fairly calm so OK? what is the sea state going to be - forecast says slight so OK.

Looking at the surface pressure charts, the next few days seem to be dominated by a high, so OK.

How far north would you be before the wind increased? What options if it was worse than forecast?

Would the wind be far enough on the beam for fast, steady progress? or would it be too far aft, giving a rolly ride?

occasionally 7 later in west.
Where is west? Further west than you would be going to Tayvallich?

This is the evening forecast - still 3 and 4 so did the calmer winds last longer than expected?

Inshore Waters Forecast
The inshore waters forecast issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency

For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from Tuesday 19 February 2013 at 1800 UTC until Wednesday 20 February 2013 at 1800 UTC

Mull of Galloway to Mull of Kintyre including the Firth of Clyde and North Channel - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, occasionally 7 later in North Channel. Smooth or slight, becoming moderate in North Channel. Mainly fair. Moderate or good, occasionally poor near shore.

Outlook: Southeast 5 to 7. Slight or moderate. Mainly fair. Good.

Mull of Kintyre to Ardnamurchan Point - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Easterly or southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, except in eastern shelter, occasionally 7 later in west. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough in far west. Fair. Moderate or good, occasionally poor near shore.

Outlook: Southeasterly 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 in far west. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough in far west. Mainly fair. Good.



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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby ash » Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:42 pm

Clyde_Wanderer wrote:I would assume you are planning on the outer passage around the MOK given a SE wind.
Good Luck.
C_W

I'm trying to learn too, so what is the reasoning behind this decision? Not enough wind to sail if really close in?

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby aquaplane » Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:41 pm

ash wrote:Not sure if I could persuade my crew to set off because of the mention of 7 and 8.

Ash


I'm not sure I could either, I'm looking for Mark's F4 on the beam with a bit of warmth and some sun.

If it was the begining of the week and the pressure charts had a line of depressions lined up ready to roll in I'd head for the canal.

In the West I look on as outside Jura and Mull. The sound of Jura should be sheltered in a SWly, especially on the Kintyre side. I have sailed in some F5 and 6 winds on Windermere but that is flat water and can be fun, it's the sea state I don't have much feel for especially wind over tide.
Seminole.
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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby ash » Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:53 pm

We've often found that the increased wind speeds seem to arrive much sooner than anticipated from the forecast but that is probably often from lows coming in from the Atlantic. I think that your forecast is a bit steadier.

Ash

PS - I think that I did persuade my crew to set off! but won't be forgiven if my argument was wrong!
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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby Mark » Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:52 am

ash wrote:I'm trying to learn too, so what is the reasoning behind this decision? Not enough wind to sail if really close in?
Ash


I assumed to avoid being caught on a lee shore if the wind picked up early and avoid overfalls in the same case.

Excellent thread Aquaplane, thanks.

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby DaveS » Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:43 pm

aquaplane wrote:The sound of Jura should be sheltered in a SWly, especially on the Kintyre side. I


I must say that I've experienced some quite horrible conditions in the SoJ in a SWly. :shock:

Ah, given the context of the previous discussion, is it a typo? Did you mean SE? If so I would agree, generally, but there are some gaps in the hills where it funnels through giving localised squalls.
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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby aquaplane » Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:46 pm

Yes, dyslexic fingers, it should be SE.
Seminole.
Cheers Bob.

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby Nick » Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:31 am

.
We've had one or two quite fabulous sails up the Sound of Jura in SE F6-7. The most memorable was a trip from Port Ellen to Balvicar in 8 hours with no main up, just the genoa.
- Nick 8)

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby pagoda » Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:49 pm

I've done Lamlash > Gigha, with a pause for lunch & tide at Sanda.
We had a good 4-5 mostly East from Sanda, which got up to the heavy side of 20 Kts below the lighthouse. There was little South in it, so smooth close in at the corner... :)
Absolutely stormed up past Machrihanish and all the way to Gigha mostly 20-25Kts, reduced genny a bit. It was reasonably tiring, so we didn't want to go much further. Ardminish was predictably not very comfortable, but we tucked ourselves in behind the point. Did the rest of the journey to Kilmelford the next day.
With hindsight the bay round the North West end of Gigha would have been a better choice.
At this time of year, the temperature would be a real problem, with a decent sailing wind.
F5 -F6 mostly East ? maybe.
F5-F7 with SE - could be daunting..

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby Clyde_Wanderer » Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:52 pm

Mark wrote:
ash wrote:I'm trying to learn too, so what is the reasoning behind this decision? Not enough wind to sail if really close in?
Ash


I assumed to avoid being caught on a lee shore if the wind picked up early and avoid overfalls in the same case.

Excellent thread Aquaplane, thanks.


Ditto.
C_W

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby ash » Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:11 pm

Clyde_Wanderer wrote:
Mark wrote:
ash wrote:I'm trying to learn too, so what is the reasoning behind this decision? Not enough wind to sail if really close in?
Ash


I assumed to avoid being caught on a lee shore if the wind picked up early and avoid overfalls in the same case.

Excellent thread Aquaplane, thanks.


Ditto.
C_W

Mmmm - OK - but - I thought Aquaplane's wind was always SE, but increasing. Are you worried about the first bit before turning N? If leaving Sanda rather than C/town, could you tuck well inshore when you turn N? Would you be bothered by downdrafts if close in with a strong SE?

I'm asking because my tendency is to be very 'conservative' with a small c - swinging wide on the corners and staying near the middle of the channel.

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Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Postby pagoda » Tue Feb 26, 2013 4:00 pm

Ditto.
C_W[/quote]
Mmmm - OK - but - I thought Aquaplane's wind was always SE, but increasing. Are you worried about the first bit before turning N? If leaving Sanda rather than C/town, could you tuck well inshore when you turn N? Would you be bothered by downdrafts if close in with a strong SE?

I'm asking because my tendency is to be very 'conservative' with a small c - swinging wide on the corners and staying near the middle of the channel.

Ash[/quote]


I think it's an interesting thread (for non canal users!).
From Sanda , round the corner if the wind was rising , might not be too bad with a little south in it. Pure SE here has a very long reach, so you would be almost broad reaching in a lumpy following sea, maybe not for very long though.., and past the light house would be in the lee of the Mull.
From Campbeltown a SE wind down to Sanda would be almost a beam reach with a fairly close lee shore, with fairly decent seas (2-3m??) Not all that comfortable. I wouldn't dream of going outside Sanda in SE 5-7?
Sanda would be a much better start point I reckon. With a knowledgeable crew: skip +2, it would be OK. Less fun if shorter handed.
Graeme


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