I promised you this forecast, and so here it is ....
The Round the Island Race is not far off and here are my latest thoughts for Saturday.
I've put a fully detailed forecast video together for the racewhich you can watch at http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv.htm (click on the Round Island Race link at the top of the page).
All models are in good agreement at the present time, a good indication that we can have confidence in the forecast.
Low pressure is expected to be north of Scotland, with a trough from western Scotland, through Ireland and into the eastern Atlantic. This brings a moderate southwesterly flow through the Channel area on Saturday. The forecast frontal chart below shows a cold front to the east and an occluded front over Ireland. Notice the IOW in between the two areas.
So, I'm going SW F4 to start, touching top end F4 to low end F5 around the west of the Island. Then a F4 to the south of the Island but perhaps nearer a F5 closer to the coast (due to some coastal compression). The east of the island sees speeds to a mid-F4 then perhaps nipping down to top-end F3/low-end F4 NE of the Island.
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