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2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 3:10 pm
by Nick
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Deep low 972 just S of Iceland for Friday strong S-Westerlies, quick blast up to TBM, eat, drink, be merry, w8 4 better weather, the bravest hit Loch Sunart for a day sail on Sat, back down the SOM on Sunday.

Sound familiar?

Bunessan is not looking very likely at the moment IMO :violin: :umbrella: :pid :stillraining :rainonme

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 4:19 pm
by DaveS
Yes, I've been keeping a slightly dismayed eye on that particular nasty. One of the American models forecasts it to be 966, S of Iceland in about 58N at 00Z Fri with a corresponding pressure in Argyll about 1012, so lots of gradient... If it were to track a bit further south, things could get quite unpleasant. :(

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 5:50 pm
by Telo
hardy wrote:Personally I've never let a deep depression centred south of Iceland stop me
Errmm, stop you from what?

Re the Hebridean Princess, I have a feeling that this may have been her first cruise under her new colours (1989?), not that you'll see them, because it's B&W:

Image

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 10:10 pm
by Shuggy
Agree. Have been watching it closely. I've made some new nav lights out of B&Q pine (nice) so we can leave Tobers at 4am on Saturday if need be - to make Dorus Mor by 5pm on Saturday. However, weather looks too crappy for dawn forays down the SoM.

[Posted images but flickr brockrn - bugckr]

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 10:11 pm
by Shuggy
I'd like to add that they're not actually 100% pine before the smart-ar*e comments appear! The lenses are teak.

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 10:35 pm
by aquaplane
Wot do you use fer wicks? I like linen ones but a twist of dried moss is said to do a good job. It's a 8ugger to find whale oil these days, olive oil works when it's too cold to get the dripping runny.

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:16 am
by Shuggy
I use sparklers. Getting up to re-light them every 90 seconds keeps you awake on a night watch.

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:05 pm
by DaveS
Today's forecasts look slightly better. The low is now on the 5 day Met Office prediction as 976 and on Cola as 972, both for 00Z Friday, so not quite so deep and the track seems to be moving a bit more northerly.

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:52 am
by Nick
Hardy,

If you read the description this is a 'Forum for those participating in the Chentleman's Cruise 2009, April 30 - May 4'

I wasn't aware that you were coming - can you perhaps give us the name of your vessel at least? Ours are all reasonably watertight, so a bit of rain doesn't worry us too much, do you perhaps sail an open boat?

See you at Dunstaffnage tomorrow night then . . .

An alternative view

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:17 am
by Telo
Hmm, looks like being wet, but hey ho, that's life.

In the wind department, I know you shouldn't put too much faith in GRIB quant methods, but it does look as though the weekend wind may be a bit on the light side, if not to say windless. My amateur reading of the Met Office pressure charts suggest similar.

Can we have a weather expert to comment please?

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:14 pm
by Nick
I know you shouldn't put too much faith in GRIB quant methods

We've found them remarkably accurate offshore, but of course less so close inshore where there are many other factors.

There are substantial differences in the BBC pressure charts and teh Met Office ones - which is odd, as I assume they comne from same place. Neither look windless to me, but not strong either. However, the inshore forecast disagrees rather alarmingly, the latest for 1300 Thursday - 1300 Friday is suggesting:

Wind Northwest backing south, 5 to 7, perhaps gale 8 later.
Sea state Slight or moderate, becoming rough.
Weather Rain or showers.
Visibility Moderate or good.


If that proves accurate then there is a high percentage chance that will be in the T&T on Thursday night - and Fairwinds will still be in Balvicar Bay! We will then meet up with the Dunstaffnage contingent on Friday. However, all may change - 24 hours is a long time in the current synoptic situation.

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:53 pm
by Telo
Hmmm. The updated GRIB also show stronger winds, including over Saturday.

We were originally thinking of either going to Dunstaffnage on Thursday night, or, alternatively, anchoring off Eilean na Cloiche (or En na Gamhna), and then linking up with the Cruise on Friday morning. We'll see.

Re: 2008 repeat predicted

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:20 pm
by DaveS
According to the Met Office forecast, the Low will now be 972 at 00Z Friday, COLA gives it as 968. Little change of track.