Weather School Musing...Do I Not Like The Look Of That?

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Weather School Musing...Do I Not Like The Look Of That?

Postby weatherman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 8:25 pm

Hi,

Well you knew it didn’t you? As the children break up from school, the weather goes downhill!

All the signs from the latest model runs are that the jet stream is going to become established over the British Isles and Ireland during the next week, pushing low pressure and frontal systems eastwards.

The 500mb forecast chart for a week on Saturday (yes it is a long way off, but it is still useful for guidance) shows the jet stream stretched out across the Atlantic and through the British isles. Where the lines are closer together, the jet stream is strongest (in this case approximating with the 576 line).

There will be some days of fine weather as transitory ridges of high pressure move through and, overall, the south will have the best of conditions anyway.

But more northern parts of the country are going to be seeing fronts move east, bringing periods of rain with them, strong winds and poor visibility at times. What we have to hope for is that the ridges come in the daytime and not overnight!

And what of the new month? There is a lot of noise around this right now, but I have a hunch about an unsettled August. If the hurricane season kicks off as predicted, the jet could be in the perfect place to blow the storms off the Atlantic and towards the British Isles.

Time to head south?

Hope that is useful, even if it is not good news!

Simon

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Simon Keeling, PhD MSc, FRMetS
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