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To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:34 pm
by aquaplane
I haven't done a lot of sailing in strong winds so I'm fairly conservative in my decission making.

If you were sat in Campbelltown with todays forecast would you consider setting off (I haven't looked at the tides, lets assume it's good to go) :

Mull of Galloway to Mull of Kintyre including the Firth of Clyde and North Channel - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, occasionally 7 later in North Channel. Mainly slight. Fair. Moderate or good.

Outlook: Southeast 5 to 7. Slight or moderate. Fair. Moderate or good.

Mull of Kintyre to Ardnamurchan Point - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Easterly or southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, except in eastern shelter, occasionally 7 later in west. Slight, but mainly moderate in northwest. Fair. Moderate or good.

Outlook: Southeasterly 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 in far west. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough in northwest. Fair. Moderate or good.

I thought a SE 3 or 4 would be OK to get round then belt up the other side in the lee of Kintyre with a bit of jib out.

Am I kidding myself?

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:11 pm
by Yotter
You mention that you have not done a lot of sailing in strong winds. A fairly important factor is the fact that this is February, the cold temperatures increase wind chill and also the force of the wind due to the higher density (caused by low temperature). Another factor is the shorter hours of daylight. I would not sail RTM with that forcast. But, of course, you have not specified the type of vessel:-)

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:14 pm
by Mark
aquaplane wrote:I haven't done a lot of sailing in strong winds so I'm fairly conservative in my decission making.

If you were sat in Campbelltown with todays forecast would you consider setting off (I haven't looked at the tides, lets assume it's good to go) :

Mull of Galloway to Mull of Kintyre including the Firth of Clyde and North Channel - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, occasionally 7 later in North Channel. Mainly slight. Fair. Moderate or good.

Outlook: Southeast 5 to 7. Slight or moderate. Fair. Moderate or good.

Mull of Kintyre to Ardnamurchan Point - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Easterly or southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6, except in eastern shelter, occasionally 7 later in west. Slight, but mainly moderate in northwest. Fair. Moderate or good.

Outlook: Southeasterly 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 in far west. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough in northwest. Fair. Moderate or good.

I thought a SE 3 or 4 would be OK to get round then belt up the other side in the lee of Kintyre with a bit of jib out.

Am I kidding myself?


Looks perfect to me, starts light and when it fills in you'll be in shelter and with a more-or-less following wind.

Going to Tayvallich?

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:45 pm
by Nick
.
If the tide is right at the start of the forecast period and the wind is as forecast 3 to 4 - then I would look at a GRIB-based site (Magic Seaweed or XC Weather) to see when they were predicting the stronger winds would come in.

If there was at least a 4 hour window of 3-4 shown starting from my departure from Campbeltown then I would go. You will be round the Mull in two hours, wind with tide so relatively placid, then you are all set for an exhilarating broad reach N. in an offshore wind. Don't think about Gigha (or at least not Ardminish) in a SE F7 though - it would be unpleasant. Better heading on for Tayvallich or further North.

Just my opinion though . . . offered with no warranties whatsoever.

- W

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:07 pm
by claymore
+1
Of course it would be pleasanter if you had a conservatory.
Agree with Nick on the Gigha bit - as you know as well as any of us, an Easterly wouldn't bother you much in Tayvallich but it would be a tad unpleasant in Gigha and for the sake of another couple of hours when you are in the relatively sheltered waters of Loch Sween you may as well press on.

The first bit will be the most challenging and whilst the windstrength would be manageable - I'd just be looking to see what the sea state was like before committing - perhaps wander over to Sanda and take a shufti?

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:17 pm
by aquaplane
Yotter, it'll be Easter so still early season and what you say will be relevent. The boat is a Centaur.

I've been looking for the last couple of weeks or so trying to get a feel for how many days I would feel like setting off, mostly no way so far.

Mark, That's what I thought but was seeking other insights. Yep, going to Tayvallich finaly after 2 years dithering.

Nick, I'll look at a GRIB forecast too, see if I can make any sense of them, they didn't do much for me when I looked before but I know you use them. I realise it could get giddy as the wind gets up and Loch Sween is one of the few places with shelter from that wind. Not a problem if that's where you are going but no where to stop for a rest if you get fed up or scared.

So I'm not totally daft then.

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:28 pm
by Mark
aquaplane wrote:Yotter, it'll be Easter so still early season and what you say will be relevent. The boat is a Centaur.

I've been looking for the last couple of weeks or so trying to get a feel for how many days I would feel like setting off, mostly no way so far.

Mark, That's what I thought but was seeking other insights. Yep, going to Tayvallich finaly after 2 years dithering.

Nick, I'll look at a GRIB forecast too, see if I can make any sense of them, they didn't do much for me when I looked before but I know you use them. I realise it could get giddy as the wind gets up and Loch Sween is one of the few places with shelter from that wind. Not a problem if that's where you are going but no where to stop for a rest if you get fed up or scared.

So I'm not totally daft then.


Any reason to avoid the Canal if the Mull wasn't a goer?

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:32 pm
by aquaplane
claymore wrote:+1
Of course it would be pleasanter if you had a conservatory.
The first bit will be the most challenging and whilst the windstrength would be manageable - I'd just be looking to see what the sea state was like before committing - perhaps wander over to Sanda and take a shufti?


A conservatory would be nice, or a deck saloon. Ivor just swapped his Centaur for an LM 27 after a cold slog round Ardlamont.

Is the sea state @ Sanda anything like off the Mull? I'm not averse to turning round if it's not suitable, especially if I can make an early decission.

I have done the canal loads of times but not in Chiron. Last year was the first time I've looked round South of Loch Sween and I realise I have missed lots. I would like to call @ Islay again if we have time.

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:38 pm
by Mark
aquaplane wrote:I have done the canal loads of times but not in Chiron. Last year was the first time I've looked round South of Loch Sween and I realise I have missed lots. I would like to call @ Islay again if we have time.


Makes sense.

I predict hot sunshine and a steady F4 during Easter.

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:49 pm
by Mark
Nick wrote:Don't think about Gigha (or at least not Ardminish) in a SE F7 though - it would be unpleasant.


Yeah, I've only been there once but we sailed past all of the North and East for the Island having a good look and I'm sure there were options on Gigha with good shelter from SE.

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:30 pm
by Telo
Re Gigha, there is a bay, Bagh Rubha Ruaidh at the north end of West Tarbert Bay. We've anchored there overnight in a brisk (as I recall) northerly; easterly or SEly should be OK.

Re original question, depends on the type of boat, but I'd probably give it serious consideration if I thought that I could reach Gigha in daylight. Having had one or two mildly unpleasant surprises, we try to avoid anchoring in the dark.

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:37 pm
by cpedw
Mark wrote:
Nick wrote:Don't think about Gigha (or at least not Ardminish) in a SE F7 though - it would be unpleasant.


Yeah, I've only been there once but we sailed past all of the North and East for the Island having a good look and I'm sure there were options on Gigha with good shelter from SE.

I can vouch for West Tarbert Bay near the north end, on the west side of Gigha. I've not tried it in bad weather but it seemed well sheltered. There's also Bagh na Doirlinne further north - from the chart it looks well sheltered from S and E but I've not been in there yet.

Derek

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:41 pm
by Telo
cpedw wrote:There's also Bagh na Doirlinne further north - from the chart it looks well sheltered from S and E but I've not been in there yet.


We've overnighted there as well and it was chust the verry ticket; bit more open, so perhaps more prone to swell in a blow. Either way, Gigha should be OK.

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:45 pm
by lady_stormrider
I've just been told I'm doing the navigating for this trip.

Out of Kip, down to Campbeltown, Mull of Kintyre, past Gigha and to Tayvallich.

It should be a cinch for my first attempt. Something nice and easy......


:sailing:

Re: To go round the Mull with this forecast?

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:21 pm
by Yotter
Bob,
Appologies for not reading your post properly, a Westerly Centeur is a fine boat. Last September, while looking for a weather window to round the Mull the other way (Sigma 33), I sat out a gale in Eileen Mor at the mouth of Loch Sween, 2 anchors out and considering a line to the shore (forcast was up to F10 NE so Gigha was out), this a good bolthole, easy to get ashore for a stroll, and saves a long double trip uo to Tayvalliach.
Regards