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Round the Island Race Forecast 28/6/12 7pm update

Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 7:31 pm
by weatherman
Hi,

Okay, it's dilemma time. Do I up my forecast wind speeds or not? GFS says I most definately should, as does the hi-res HIRLAM model. But UK Met Office model holds the wind speeds down, although about half a force above those I went for this morning.

So, I think I'm going to 'tip my cap' to the GFS, but I do think this has overdoen the winds a touch. I now think boats will be heading out into the Solent in a SW F5. As they round the Needles it could be that we get into a low end F6, especially if a trough comes through producing some gusting before midday. IN the Channel speeds probably get to a F6, especially close to the coast, although by the time you round the east of the island these should return back to top-end F4/low-end F5.

Couple of things to note. The GFS is strenghtening speeds ahead of the trough some time around 7am to 10am. This would increase the gusts into the F7 range. The problem is the GFS does overdo this at times and so I don't want to take too much notice right now.

The other thing to note is that the HIRLAM hi-res wind model (http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartshirlamopiowwind.php) now has increased speeds too.

So, as I suspected I might have to do in this mronings forecast, I've lifted the speeds by half a force.

We need to watch developments carefully tomorrow.

Hope that's of use.

Simon

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